The Economist article titled: “What will happen to Uganda when Yoweri Museveni goes? Nothing good, if recent months are anything to go by” that appeared in the Economist edition of September 3, 2026 is an attempt to shape a fixed narrative to cause anxiety among Ugandans about the future of the country post-Museveni.
The villain of the article is Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba Museveni , Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) and son of President Yoweri Museveni. Muhoozi is currently the most talked about personality in Uganda after Museveni himself.
The article represents the sentiments of those opposed to the Museveni-Muhoozi power axis though, cleverly, avoiding naming the preferred alternative“successor(s)” and appearing to front Gen. SalimSaleh, the influential brother of President Museveni, renowned for executing the ground war during the NRA struggle that brought on a new regime in 1986.
Gen. Saleh is a behind-the-scenes operator, more interested in business and industry, establishing and anchoring ventures in strategic areas with the purpose of raising Uganda’s industrial and export portfolio. He is long retired from the army and mainstream government but remains active as a Presidential Advisor on Security and backroom political consultant. Many believe that he calls the shots in many spheres of the nation, and for that, bigwigs, investors, artistes, top level job seekers seek him out in his “hideouts” for consultation on this and that.
Gen. Saleh’s stature is more outspoken than he is, being a man of soft and polite speech, unlike his brother the President who is known to tear into any subject matter with the assurance of a man whose journey in politics was ordained by the “gods” of war. Saleh is consistently “forced” into succession politics, although he has never come out to express readiness for that challenge. This idea is increasingly being pushed (on him) by fanatics of succession politics in Uganda capitalising on a bit of uncertainty over the future after Museveni, now 82, grows. These commentators are attempting to test Saleh and, perhaps, squeeze a confession from him and, may be, set off friction within the Museveni “empire” hoping for an implosion.
But Saleh and his senior brother are guerilla-by-blood and unlikely to take the bait. If it ever happens that Saleh joins the queue, it will be yet another twist in the NRM revolutionary journey. For now, it’s Gen. Kainerugaba fully in the fray.
At the time of writing this piece, Kainerugaba (fondly called MK) has declared to contest for the Presidency in 2031. The declaration was done on his behalf by Hon. David Kabanda, one of his trusted aides in the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), the social movement which MK heads as its Chairman. The declaration was, as expected, received with disdain by the opposition and with alacrity by NRM and pro-Museveni supporters. An endorsement drive was launched seeking signatures from all 146 districts and cities of Uganda to back Muhoozi’s bid. The league is also recruiting members. Although the organisation’s status remains as that of a pressure group under National Resistance Movement (the ruling party), it is thought that it could register as a full-fledged political party or amalgamate to the NRM. That would mean that MK will retire from the army, and launch his bid as a civilian under his father’s party or under a new party that will merge with NRM as a duo coalition.
MK’s declaration has long been in coming. It was expected much earlier. In some circles, his potential ascendency to the top seat is counted as a “done deal” as Frank Gashumba, one of the original members of the PLU movement, said on Radio 4 recently. Andrew Mwenda, the noted journalist and close ally of MK, has also voiced that certainty.
Government big shots including the Speaker of Parliament, Hon. Jacob Oboth-Oboth and his deputy, Hon. Thomas Tayebwa, are already on board the “MK ship”, together with many ministers, Members of Parliament (MPs), district bosses and Generals . After years of what seemed like a jocular phase in the political sphere, Muhoozi’s chance at succeeding his father has gained credence in the shortest of times.
Oddly, hints of his emergence as a contender for the leadership of the East African country that got independence in 1962 started from naysayers whose aim was to tell the world that Museveni was a terrible schemer and autocrat who was grooming his son to take over from him. They hoped that that would get Ugandans to say “enough is enough”.
Such rumours started in the late 2000s when Muhoozi was somewhere at the rank of Major, an “insignificant” officer plying his trade as an ordinary soldier who happened to be a first son. He was a recluse, rarely seen in public and whose voice only few would recognise.
But Museveni’s rivals and enemies of his legacy kept on fronting the Muhoozi name, most famously in 2013 by Gen. David Sejusa who alleged that there was a “Muhoozi project” under construction and that because of it, officers and NRM big shots opposed to it were being targeted for elimination. From then on, “Muhoozi project” progressively manifested like a miracle spoken into place until now when only strategy and the hand of nature stand between Muhoozi and the presidential seat.
A million things have been said about him, including his very heritage and suitability as an officer but everything seems to work towards making the previously mythical objective come to reality.
The widely discussed posts on X have done nothing if not make him a household and global name. Forget the venom, sting and framing of individual posts; those are the concern of whoever they address. What’s not in question is that out of a virtual app, MK has built a brand that’s hard to ignore. The framing is deliberate, the timing calculated, the targets assessed and locked with concealed precision. Does anybody think that a whole son of Museveni doesn’t think through these things or see the “ruckus” occasioned by his posts? That he has no sense of communication decorum and professionalism? That he can’t post differently if he wanted to?
The truth is that the General has spoken “forbidden truths” and addressed situations, institutions and people hitherto taken as “untouchable”. Behind the so called threats directed at the now incarcerated Dr. Kizza Besigye (four time presidential candidate and bush war comrade of his father) now jailed on treason charges and NUP leader, Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine (who is self-exiled in the USA), is a fundamental question; doesn’t Uganda have a Constitution and a legal framework under which justice and political decisions are regulated? Does anybody think that a whole CDF is ignorant of the legal regime in place and what powers he or any other person has? The people piling pressure on Muhoozi, do they ever interrogate the actions and methods of those opposed to Museveniand his legacy? Have they committed crime or acted unruly under the guise of agitating for regime change?
MK has come out to take on these groups head-on and was sure to make them very uncomfortable. But that says nothing about how the transition will work out. Uganda’s opposition is fragmented, flippant, incapableof learning from their mistakes and previous losses,and unable to front a marketable agenda other than getting rid of Museveni. You should see what they do on social media yet very disadvantaged in terms of organised capacity and mentorship on the ground. Five years on and the one that they said could do nothing by himself without the father’s backing will be the generational “messiah” and a new dawn will come to Uganda-an end to corruption, Kagame-style efficiency,hardened stability, renewed sense of Patriotism and national pride, social and political order and massive economic revival. President Museveni, the revolutionary trailblazer, is the foundation of the house, Muhoozi is the finishing!
